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In his election run, Donald Trump promised to steer clear of costly and frequently catastrophic overseas wars such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan. This promise was a central component of his isolationist “America first” agenda. Yet within months his inauguration, American military units were conducting bombings in Yemen and Iran. Turning to the south, Trump threatened to seize the Panama Canal. Currently, the Pentagon is preparing for potential operations against so-called “terrorist” drug cartels within the borders of Colombia and Mexico. Of greatest immediate concern is a potential fresh administration effort to forcibly impose a new government in Venezuela.

Venezuela's Response and Escalating Strains

Venezuela's president, the country's socialist strongman president, asserts that this effort has already under way. He says that the US is waging a covert conflict against his country following multiple deadly strikes against Venezuelan vessels in international waters. The US president recently informed Congress that the United States is engaged in hostilities with narco-trafficking groups. He claims, without proof, that the attacked vessels were carrying illegal narcotics bound for the US – and that the Venezuelan leader is responsible. He has issued a multimillion-dollar reward on Maduro’s head.

Latin American governments are anxiously monitoring a major American armed forces build-up around Venezuela, featuring warships, F-35 combat aircraft, an attack submarine and thousands of marines. Such formidable resources are hardly very useful in anti-drug operations. But they could be used offensively, or to assist commando operations and airstrikes. On Thursday, Venezuela alleged Washington of an “illegal incursion” by at least five F-35s. Maduro states he is preparing emergency powers to defend citizens if Venezuela comes under attack from the American empire.

Analyzing the Motives For the Moves

What exactly is Trump doing? Narcotics trafficking is a serious issue – yet killing people arbitrarily in international waters, while frequent and hard to hold accountable, is still illegal. Moreover, the UN says the majority of illegal drugs entering the US comes from Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is largely not transported via Venezuela. Trump, a former avoided military service, enjoys playing the tough leader. Currently, he is seeking to expel Venezuelan migrants, a large number originally fled to the US due to sanctions he himself imposed. Some analysts propose he covets Venezuela’s vast energy and mineral resources.

Indeed that Trump and John Bolton, attempted to replace Maduro in 2019 in what Caracas described as a regime change plot. Additionally, Maduro’s recent electoral victory was broadly denounced as fraudulent. Given a free choice, the people would almost certainly remove him. Furthermore, opposing political beliefs are a factor, as well. Maduro, unworthy heir to Hugo Chávez’s socialist movement, is offensive to the president's dominant idea of a US-dominated western hemisphere, in which the historic policy rules again and free-market capitalism operates without restraint.

Absence of Coherent Strategy

Yet given his hapless missteps in other key foreign matters, the probable explanation for Trump’s behavior is that, as usual, he lacks understanding about his actions – in Venezuela or the region overall. There’s no plan. He acts aggressively, makes impetuous misjudgments, stokes fear of foreigners and forms policies based on if he approves of other leaders. Previously, with Maduro in trouble, the US president backed down. Today, large-scale military intervention in the country remains unlikely. More likely is an intensified pressure campaign of destabilization, sanctions, maritime strikes, and air and commando raids.

Instead of weakening and marginalizing Maduro's government, Trump may achieve the exact opposite. Maduro is already using the crisis to assume dictatorial emergency authority and mobilize public opinion with nationalist calls for unity. The president's bullying towards additional left-leaning regional countries – such as Colombia – and presumptuous cheerleading for conservative populists in Argentina and El Salvador – is spurring a regional backlash, as well. Most governments detest the thought of a return to the bad old days of American interference in the hemisphere.

Latin American Backlash and Diplomatic Failures

The administration's attempt to use punitive tariffs and restrictions to strong-arm Brazil into pardoning its former hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro backfired spectacularly recently. Massive protests took to the streets in Brazilian urban centers to protect what they perceived as an attack on Brazilian sovereignty and legal principles. The popularity for the new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, soared. Brazil is not, and never again will we be, a dependent state,” he stated. Lula effectively told Trump, in effect, to back off. Then, at their meeting at the UN summit, the American leader backed off and played nice.

The view of a great leap backwards in inter-American relations increases ineluctably. The White House views Latin America mainly as a danger, linking it to drug trafficking, criminal networks and incoming migration,” a noted analyst warned earlier this year. American policy is essentially negative, prioritizing unilateral action and control rather than cooperation,” she said, stating: “The region is viewed less as an equal partner and more as a sphere of influence to be controlled in line with American goals.”

Hawkish Officials and Escalating Rhetoric

The president's hawkish aides contribute to the problem: especially Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff, and Marco Rubio, a former lawmaker from Florida who is secretary of state and security advisor. In his view, a longtime critic of socialist governments in Cuba and Nicaragua, the Venezuelan leader is unfinished business. Justifying the boat attacks, he declared: Seizures doesn’t work. The solution is destroying them … This will continue.” From the top US diplomat, these are strong words.

Future Consequences

Trump’s attempts to revive the role of Latin American regional enforcer, copying former president Theodore Roosevelt – a big stick-wielding frequent meddler – are backward-looking, dangerous and counterproductive. Long-term, the main beneficiary will most likely be Beijing, an increasingly influential player, investor and leading member of the Brics group countries. While America severs ties across the world, the administration is making China rise in influence.